How big is the Saudi retail market? What the data shows

Saudi shoppers spent SAR 707.15 billion through card terminals in 2025. Another SAR 325.20 billion went online on mada cards (SAMA). The central bank publishes that spending every week, but no one publishes figures on the shop space where it happens.

There is no official figure for national retail sales, mall floorspace, occupancy or rent. What we know about supply comes from listed landlords reporting on their own malls. The largest held about 1.25 million sqm across 20 assets at 30 June 2026, at 91.2% like-for-like occupancy (Cenomi Centers). Any single "Saudi retail market size" figure you see is a private model.

Key figures at a glance

Sizing the market from card spending

Terminal spending reached SAR 707.15 billion in 2025, on 2,330,051 terminals installed by 31 December. The first half of 2026 brought SAR 368.70 billion, up 6.1% on SAR 347.44 billion a year earlier (SAMA, Table 30c). In the latest published week, 16 to 22 August 2026, terminals took SAR 14.17 billion on 237.3 million transactions (SAMA weekly).

This is the best free official demand series in the region. It is still not retail sales. Cash is left out. So are online payments on Visa, MasterCard and other credit cards, as SAMA's own footnote says. Business-to-business card payments, on the other hand, are counted. A city line counts the terminals located in that city, whoever uses them.

GDP tells a slower story. Card spending rose 6.1% in the first half of 2026. Real value added in wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels grew 2.16% in Q1 2026, down from 6.45% in Q2 2025. Only agriculture and government grew more slowly. Real private consumption picked up to 5.29% in the same quarter (GASTAT).

Most of the gap is people moving from cash to card, which lifts terminal value without adding any activity, so card growth on its own overstates retail growth.

Our calculation from two SAMA columns. mada e-commerce was 25.6% of terminal value in 2023, 29.5% in 2024 and 46.0% in 2025. The real share is higher, because international cards are left out of the online column but not of the terminal total.

Where the money goes

Food and beverages was the largest named category in 2025, at SAR 105.51 billion or 14.9% of terminal value. Restaurants and cafés came next at SAR 84.83 billion (SAMA, Table 30e). The biggest line overall, though, is unclassified. "Others" took SAR 109.87 billion, 15.5% of the total.

Much of the growth in Others comes from spending being moved between categories during 2025, so we would quote category levels and treat category growth rates with care.

By city, Riyadh took 33.9% of terminal value in the four weeks to 22 August 2026, and Jeddah 13.2%. Dammam had 4.7% and Makkah 4.0% (SAMA weekly). Pilgrim cities include a lot of visitor spending. Al-Khobar has its own line at 2.7%, so Dammam is not the Eastern Province. Restaurants and cafés are covered in the Saudi F&B market.

How much mall space there is, and how full it is

No Saudi authority publishes national retail floorspace or occupancy. The largest disclosed portfolio covered about 1.25 million sqm across 20 assets in nine cities at 30 June 2026. Like-for-like occupancy was 91.2%. That is the lowest reading in two years, after 94.4% at December 2024 and 94.2% at December 2025 (Cenomi Centers).

The 94.4% usually quoted is like-for-like, on 1,177,151 sqm. The same annual report gives the whole estate as 1,352,724 sqm at 90.6%, from the same 31 December 2024 occupancy column (Annual Report 2025). The 3.8-point gap comes from the definition, and a lender should use the wider figure (see gross leasable area).

We also compared the 21 malls that appear in both the FY2025 annual report and the sukuk prospectus. The report's occupancy repeats the 31 December 2024 figure exactly for all 21, while floorspace was updated for 20 of them (prospectus, Table 3.2). The report's own text says occupancy "remained stable at 94.17%, compared to 94.4% in 2024". Read as 2025 data, as it often is, every mall is a year out.

Our calculation on the disclosed mall table. Eight of the 22 malls, holding 41.8% of the space, were below 90% occupied at 31 December 2024. The weakest was U Walk Jeddah at 68.8%, while Mecca Mall reached 99.1%.

Occupancy also says nothing about whether tenants pay. Impairments on receivables, related parties and accrued revenue came to SAR 315.7 million in FY2025, 13.8% of revenue of SAR 2,288.3 million (FY2025 release). At Alandalus Property, the retail credit-loss allowance rose to SAR 9.83 million from SAR 1.44 million on flat retail revenue (Note 24).

Alinma Retail REIT is the only listed fund with retail in its name. It reported its two remaining malls at 87% and 64% in 2024, left out a third "due to its closure", and sold a Riyadh mall to buy offices (2024 report; more in Saudi mall occupancy and REIT disclosures).

What retail space rents for

Only one official price series covers retail property, and it carries little weight. GASTAT's gallery and shop index was 101.74 in Q2 2026, up 0.4% on the year and 3.8% on the quarter. Its weight is 0.553% of the Real Estate Price Index (GASTAT REPI).

The commercial sector makes up 25.404% of that index. Commercial land plots account for 22.836 points of it, shops for 0.553. So about nine tenths of any commercial price headline is bare land.

Over a longer window, the two series split. On annual averages, the shop index rose from 94.94 in 2021 to 101.18 in 2025, up 6.6%. The commercial index rose from 84.35 to 112.51, up 33.4%. Shop prices largely missed the commercial boom.

For rents, the only published card comes from a landlord. At 31 December 2024, average rental revenue ran from SAR 458.9 per sqm for hypermarkets and SAR 651.5 for entertainment to SAR 3,956.6 for health and personal care. The portfolio average was SAR 1,876.3 (prospectus). Entertainment takes 17.2% of the floorspace. Apparel takes 40.7%, at SAR 1,945.4.

The same document also prices space by unit size. Anchor stores above 2,000 sqm paid SAR 648 per sqm, across 413,650 sqm of occupied space. Line stores paid SAR 2,957 (prospectus, Table 3.8), so smaller shops carry most of the rent while anchors bring in the footfall.

Our calculation: three rent measures for one portfolio, 28% apart. Dividing FY2024 net rental revenue by total floorspace gives SAR 1,647 per sqm, against SAR 1,876.3 on the tenant-mix card and SAR 2,101 on the owner's like-for-like measure at June 2026. Check which definition a model uses before you quote it.

What is coming, and how full it opens

Almost all of the disclosed pipeline belongs to one owner. Cenomi Centers plans to grow floorspace by 50%, to 1.9 million sqm by 2029. Westfield Jeddah, 104,000 sqm, opened on 30 July 2026 about 96% pre-leased. Westfield Riyadh, 220,000 sqm, is structurally complete and about 94% pre-leased, for opening in Q4 2026 (Q2 2026 release).

Its prospectus gives an average first-year occupancy of 70% to 75% for each new mall opened since 2017 (prospectus). Pre-leasing counts signed commitments. First-year occupancy counts shops that are trading.

Our estimate of the effect on headline occupancy. If the two Westfields fill at the historical 70% to 75% in their first year, portfolio occupancy at December 2026 comes out at 87% to 88%, against guidance of 94.0%. Meeting guidance needs both flagships to beat the company's track record. This is simple arithmetic on published figures and should not be read as a forecast.

The Riyadh rent freeze comes in the middle of this. From 25 September 2025, annual rent increases on residential and commercial leases inside Riyadh's urban boundaries were suspended for five years, for existing and new contracts (REGA). The rule does not say whether a mall unit counts as a commercial lease, and mall leases have usually sat outside Ejar. What we can state is the exposure. Six of the portfolio's assets are in Riyadh, and 31.0% of its rental revenues come up for renewal in 2026 (H1 2026 presentation).

Where the public record stops

Much of what a retail case depends on is not published by anyone we can cite. That includes national retail sales, floorspace, occupancy, rent by city, footfall and e-commerce market size. Resident and visitor spending are not separated either. Travel credits of SAR 159.86 billion in 2025 (SAMA, Table 7-1) give a sense of how much visitor spending sits inside the terminal figures.

Why we publish no national total. The only Saudi malls with both published floorspace and published occupancy are 22 named malls, 1,377,963 sqm at 31 December 2024, all in one company's portfolio. Other listed owners such as Alandalus (2025 annual report, hosted on Azure) do not publish floorspace, and no authority publishes a national total, so we cannot give a coverage ratio. For scale only: that owner's FY2025 revenue of SAR 2,288.3 million is 0.32% of the SAR 707.15 billion spent through Saudi terminals in 2025.

Omran builds the Saudi retail picture from SAMA, GASTAT, REGA and company filings, each dated and sourced, and marks estimates as estimates. The primary sources are public. The assembled tables are not. Ask for the mall-by-mall table, or scope a retail data brief for your own catchment.

FAQ

How big is the Saudi Arabia retail market? There is no official answer. SAR 707.15 billion went through Saudi card terminals in 2025, plus SAR 325.20 billion online on mada cards. Neither is retail sales, and no Saudi authority publishes retail sales. Any single headline figure for the market is a private model.

Is SAMA's point-of-sale report the same as retail sales? No. Cash is left out, and so are online payments on international cards, as SAMA's footnote says. Business-to-business card payments are included. It is still the best free official weekly demand series in the region, split by activity and by city.

How full are Saudi malls? There is no national figure. The largest listed owner reported 91.2% like-for-like at 30 June 2026, down from 94.2% at end-2025. Its annual report gives 90.6% for the whole portfolio, on the 31 December 2024 column. Alinma Retail REIT reported 87% and 64% at its two remaining malls in 2024, with a third left out because it had closed.

Why does the commercial property price index say little about shops? Because 22.836 of its 25.404 percentage points are bare commercial land. The gallery and shop component carries 0.553% of the index. It was 101.74 in Q2 2026, up 0.4% on the year, while the commercial headline fell 3.2%. On 2021 to 2025 annual averages, shops rose 6.6% and commercial 33.4%.

What do retail units rent for in Saudi Arabia? No authority publishes rent levels. The one landlord card, at 31 December 2024, runs from SAR 458.9 per sqm for hypermarkets to SAR 3,956.6 for health and personal care, averaging SAR 1,876.3. Revenue over floorspace gives SAR 1,647, and the owner's like-for-like measure was SAR 2,101 at June 2026. Name the definition before quoting a number.

Is e-commerce pulling demand out of Saudi malls? Online is growing much faster. mada e-commerce rose 64.7% in 2025, while total terminal value rose 5.8%. On GASTAT's survey, 37.0% of wholesale and retail businesses sold or displayed goods online in 2025. The largest mall owner still plans to grow floorspace by half by 2029, with shops making up less than half of it.

Sources

• SAMA, Monthly Bulletin June 2026, Tables 30c, 30d and 30e (POS value, transactions, terminals, activity lines, mada e-commerce) and Table 7-1 (travel credits): link
• SAMA, Weekly Points of Sale Transactions report, week ending 22 August 2026 (weekly total, city split): link; index page: link
• GASTAT, Gross Domestic Product Q1 2026 (growth by activity, contribution to growth, private consumption): link
• GASTAT, Real Estate Price Index Q2 2026 (gallery and shop component, index weights, commercial series): link
• GASTAT, Establishments ICT Access and Usage Statistics 2025 (share of establishments selling online, by activity): link
• Cenomi Centers, H1 2026 earnings presentation (occupancy and floorspace series, rent per sqm, lease expiries): link
• Cenomi Centers, Q2 2026 press release (pipeline, pre-leasing, Westfield handovers): link
• Cenomi Centers, FY2025 earnings release (revenue, receivables impairment, portfolio count): link
• Cenomi Centers, Annual Report 2025 (like-for-like versus whole-portfolio occupancy, category blocks, retail-share target): link
• Arabian Centres (Cenomi Centers) sukuk base prospectus, CMA-hosted (22-mall table, tenant-mix and store-size rent cards, head leases, first-year occupancy): link
• Alandalus Property, audited consolidated financial statements FY2025, Note 24 (retail segment revenue and credit losses): link
• Alandalus Property, Annual Report 2025, "Our Retail Destinations" (four malls and three neighbourhood centres), hosted on Azure rather than the company domain: link
• Alinma Retail REIT, Annual Report 2024 (mall occupancy, closure, asset rotation): link
• REGA, Riyadh five-year rent freeze effective 25 September 2025 (residential and commercial contracts): link